Analysis

"It Occurred to Me That Pogačar Was Also Training for Roubaix at Flanders" — Analyst's Alarming Theory

CYCLING LOOKOUT • 7 APRIL 2026

The day after Tadej Pogačar demolished the Tour of Flanders field with a 47 km/h solo run-in from the Oude Kwaremont, most of the cycling world was still processing the sheer scale of his dominance. But one performance analyst offered a theory that should send a chill through every rider lining up at Paris-Roubaix on April 12: what if Flanders was not just a race for Pogačar, but also a 260-kilometre training session for the Hell of the North?

The alarming suggestion emerged from a detailed breakdown of Pogačar's Flanders power data published by IDL Pro Cycling. The analyst noted that the Slovenian's effort distribution across the race was unusual — not the pattern of a rider conserving energy for a late-race gamble, but something closer to a sustained, controlled burn across the entire distance. "It occurred to me that Pogačar was also training in Flanders for Roubaix," the analyst wrote. "The way he rode the flat sections between the bergs, the way he kept the pace high even when tactically it wasn't necessary — it looked like a man building cobblestone endurance, not just racing for the win."

The theory gains credibility when you consider the broader context of UAE Team Emirates-XRG's spring campaign. Pogačar has been explicit about his desire to complete the Monument Grand Slam — winning all five of cycling's most prestigious one-day races. He already has Milan-San Remo, Il Lombardia, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and now three Tours of Flanders on his palmarès. Paris-Roubaix is the only gap. His team have invested months of preparation specifically for this one race, with Florian Vermeersch, Tim Wellens and Nils Politt all recruited or retained specifically for their cobblestone expertise.

The data from Flanders supports the thesis. Pogačar's 690-watt Kwaremont attack was devastating, but what caught the analyst's eye was the Slovenian's behaviour between climbs. On the flat cobbled sections — surfaces that mirror the pavé of northern France far more closely than the steep Flemish bergs — Pogačar was riding at the front, absorbing vibration, testing his positioning, and maintaining a tempo that would have been unnecessary for a rider of his ability to simply win the race. It looked, in retrospect, like deliberate practice.

Mathieu van der Poel's post-race reaction adds another layer. The Dutchman admitted he was riding at 650 watts and still could not follow Pogačar on the Kwaremont — a confession that reveals the extraordinary physical gap between first and second place. But Van der Poel also noted that Pogačar appeared to be riding within himself on the cobbled transitions, a detail that aligns with the idea that the Slovenian was using those sections as Roubaix-specific preparation. "I had one problem," Van der Poel said. "There's a phenomenon riding around."

The implications for Sunday's Paris-Roubaix are significant. If Pogačar genuinely used Flanders as a dual-purpose effort — winning the race while simultaneously stress-testing his body and equipment for the cobbles of northern France — then the assumption that fatigue from Sunday's Flanders win will slow him at Roubaix may be dangerously wrong. Alpecin-Deceuninck's performance director suggested he saw a "worn-out Pogačar" after the finish in Oudenaarde, but the analyst's theory flips that reading entirely: what looked like exhaustion may simply have been the residue of a man who rode harder than he needed to, deliberately, because the real target is five days away.

Pogačar himself has offered little to confirm or deny the theory. His post-Flanders press conference was characteristically relaxed — "motivation high, pressure low, like the tyres will be" — but his equipment choices tell their own story. The switch to the Colnago Y1Rs aero frame, the extensive tyre testing during a 210-kilometre recon ride, and the presence of cobblestone specialists in his Roubaix support squad all point to a rider who has been thinking about April 12 for months, not days.

Whether the theory holds up will be tested on the pavé between Compiègne and the Roubaix Vélodrome on Sunday. But if the analyst is right, the rest of the field may need to recalibrate their expectations entirely. A Pogačar who used Flanders as both a Monument victory and a Roubaix training ride is not a tired favourite — he is a rider operating on a level that the sport has rarely seen. The Hell of the North awaits, and the man in the rainbow jersey appears to have been preparing for it all along.

"It Occurred to Me That Pogačar Was Also Training for Roubaix at Flanders" — Analyst's Alarming Theory

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