"I Saw a Worn-Out Pogačar" — Rivals Sense Paris-Roubaix Opportunity After Flanders Fatigue
Tadej Pogačar may have delivered one of the most devastating solo victories in Tour of Flanders history on Saturday, but the images that flickered across television screens as the Slovenian crossed the finish line in Oudenaarde told a more nuanced story than the 34-second winning margin suggested. Behind the victory salute was a rider visibly drained — head bowed, shoulders slumped, legs that had given everything the Flemish Ardennes demanded and perhaps a fraction more. It was a detail that did not escape the sharpest analytical minds in the peloton, and one that has injected a fresh current of optimism into the Paris-Roubaix preparations of his principal rivals.
Kristof De Kegel, Head of Performance at Alpecin-Premier Tech, was among the first to articulate what many in rival team buses were thinking. "I saw a worn-out Pogačar as he crossed the line," De Kegel told reporters on Sunday morning. "I've rarely seen him look so exhausted after a one-day race. That level of fatigue after 270 kilometres is significant — it tells you the effort required to win Flanders in the way he did was enormous, even for someone of his calibre." De Kegel's Alpecin-Premier Tech squad will line up behind Mathieu van der Poel at Roubaix next Sunday, and the Dutchman's three-time defending champion status means every marginal gain — or marginal fatigue in a rival — is closely monitored.
The numbers behind Pogačar's Flanders victory reinforce De Kegel's observation. The data breakdown of the decisive Kwaremont attack revealed a sustained effort north of 690 watts, followed by a 47 km/h solo run-in over the final 18 kilometres on exposed Flemish roads. That is an extraordinary physiological output by any measure, and the recovery window between Flanders and Roubaix — just six days — is notoriously tight for riders who have emptied themselves so completely on the bergs.
Not everyone in the peloton shares De Kegel's interpretation, however. Mathieu Heijboer, Head of Performance at Visma-Lease a Bike, offered a more cautious assessment. "I have seen Pogačar look more exhausted after Tour de France stages than he did after Flanders," Heijboer said. "He recovers faster than anyone in the sport. Writing him off because he looked tired on the finish line would be a serious mistake." Heijboer's caution is well-founded — Pogačar's recovery capacity has been a defining feature of his career, allowing him to chain major victories across surfaces, terrains and race distances that would break most riders.
What unites both camps, however, is the recognition that Paris-Roubaix presents a fundamentally different challenge to Flanders. The pavé of northern France offers no Kwaremont, no Paterberg, no short sharp gradients where Pogačar's watts-per-kilogram advantage becomes decisive. "The biggest hope for us and the other teams is that there are no climbs in Roubaix where Pogačar can make the difference," Heijboer acknowledged. "On the flat cobbles, the race is about power, positioning, bike handling and nerve. Those are qualities where Van der Poel, Van Aert and Pedersen can match or exceed him."
For Van der Poel specifically, the analysis carries particular weight. The Dutchman has built his record-equalling four-peat bid on the understanding that Roubaix is his race — a 259-kilometre war of attrition on the cobbled sectors of the Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l'Arbre where his cyclocross-honed bike handling and diesel engine give him advantages that Pogačar's climbing prowess cannot neutralise. If Pogačar arrives in Compiègne next Sunday carrying residual fatigue from his Flanders masterclass, Van der Poel's path to a fourth consecutive victory becomes measurably clearer.
Wout van Aert, who finished fourth at Flanders, may also benefit. The Belgian's spring has been a study in contrasts — inconsistent early results followed by increasingly sharp performances as the cobbled Classics arrived. Van Aert lines up leaner than in recent seasons, a physical transformation he directly links to improved power output on the pavé. A fatigued Pogačar, combined with Roubaix's attritional nature, could open the door that has been firmly shut throughout the spring.
Pogačar himself has shown no public concern about recovery. His post-Flanders declaration — "motivation high, pressure low, like the tyres will be" — was delivered with the relaxed confidence of a rider who believes he has solved the puzzle of the cobbled Classics and views Roubaix as the final piece of a historic Monument Grand Slam. Whether that confidence survives the bruising reality of 30 cobbled sectors and 258 kilometres of racing in potentially wet conditions remains the most compelling question in professional cycling this week.