Green Jersey Up For Grabs: Philipsen Heads a Loaded Sprint Field as ASO Tilts the Points Back to the Fast Men
If the general classification at the 2026 Tour de France looks like a four-way war, the battle for the green jersey is no less crowded. A deep and dangerous group of sprinters lines up in Barcelona, and a revised points system has been designed to put them firmly back at the centre of the points classification.
ASO have increased the reward for winning a flat stage to 70 points, up from 50, with second place rising to 50 and third to 40. The intent is unambiguous: after Tadej Pogačar came within 78 points of Jonathan Milan's green jersey in 2025 by hoovering up points on hilly days, the organisers have weighted the competition more heavily towards the pure fast men who dominate the flattest finishes.
That shift plays into the hands of Jasper Philipsen, the Alpecin-Premier Tech sprinter who starts as the clear favourite. Now a more complete rider without sacrificing his trademark top-end speed, Philipsen has the lead-out and the consistency to thrive if the race produces a run of clean bunch sprints. He is the man every rival measures themselves against.
His chief challenger may be Biniam Girmay, the first African to win Tour stages, whose ability to survive rolling terrain and profit on days when the pure sprinters lose contact makes him uniquely versatile. Tim Merlier of Soudal Quick-Step brings perhaps the fiercest raw acceleration in the race, while reigning Italian champion Milan arrives with the tricolore jersey on his shoulders and a Lidl-Trek train built to deliver him.
Lurking just behind the pure speed merchants is Mads Pedersen, whose blend of durability, intermediate-sprint nous and finishing power over lumpier terrain arguably makes him the smartest bet of all for the overall classification, even if he is not the fastest in a flat-out drag race. The Dane's all-round profile fits a points competition that still rewards riders who can stay upright over three weeks of varied terrain.
The wildcard is Olav Kooij, confirmed in the Decathlon CMA-CGM line-up after an illness-disrupted spring. Kooij has the quality to influence the classification, but he needs two things to fall his way: a clean run of form after a difficult build-up, and a team willing to commit resources to the sprints rather than devoting everything to protecting GC debutant Paul Seixas. With nine or more realistic bunch finishes on the menu, the green jersey could swing all the way to Paris.