Dry Cobbles at Paris-Roubaix: Why the Forecast Favours Pogacar Over Van der Poel
The Paris-Roubaix weather forecast has settled. After days of fluctuating predictions that had teams scrambling to prepare for every scenario, the latest outlook points to mostly dry conditions on Sunday with temperatures around 15-16 degrees and a light south-westerly crosswind of 10-15 kilometres per hour. There remains a 32 per cent chance of overnight showers, but the race itself should be contested under grey skies rather than through puddles. And that matters enormously for how the 123rd edition will unfold.
Dry cobblestones are faster cobblestones. They reward pure power and speed over technical finesse, compressing the field and making it harder for specialists to gain advantages through bike handling alone. On a wet day, the pavé becomes a skating rink where experience, reflexes, and the courage to commit to a line through the mud can be worth minutes. On a dry day, the race becomes more of a test of raw wattage — and that is where Tadej Pogacar becomes the most dangerous man in the field.
The Slovenian's 2026 power data tells the story. An estimated FTP north of 415 watts at 66 kilograms gives him a watts-per-kilogram ratio that borders on the absurd for a Classics rider, and his ability to sustain 530-watt attacks after four hours of racing — as he demonstrated at the Tour of Flanders — means he can ride the cobblestones at a pace that simply breaks other riders. On dry pavé, where traction is reliable and crashes are fewer, Pogacar can exploit his engine to its fullest without the lottery of slippery stones intervening.
Mathieu van der Poel, by contrast, is a rider whose Paris-Roubaix dominance has been built partly on his extraordinary handling in difficult conditions. The three-time defending champion has a preternatural ability to find the best lines through broken pavé, to pick his way through chaos, and to accelerate out of corners where others must brake. On a wet day, those skills become decisive multipliers. On a dry day, they still matter — but the advantage narrows. Van der Poel remains an exceptional rider on any surface, but his technical edge shrinks when the cobblestones offer consistent grip.
The implications ripple through the entire tactical picture. Wout van Aert should benefit from dry conditions. The Belgian's power profile has always been suited to Roubaix — he can produce eye-watering watts in time trial mode — but his results at the Hell of the North have never matched his talent, partly because the chaos of wet editions has caught him out. A dry, fast race that rewards sustained power over six hours plays to Van Aert's engine. His Visma-Lease a Bike team have been publicly backing him for this race, and dry cobbles give their confidence more credibility.
Filippo Ganna is another rider who stands to gain from dry conditions. The Italian powerhouse, fresh from his Dwars door Vlaanderen victory, produces some of the highest absolute wattage in the peloton. On dry cobblestones, where grip is not a concern, his ability to ride at the front and set a tempo that eliminates lighter riders becomes a weapon. Ganna's Lidl-Trek team could use him as a battering ram through the middle sectors before he launches his own bid in the finale.
The one caveat remains the overnight rain risk. A 32 per cent chance of showers in the early hours of Sunday morning creates the worst possible hybrid scenario: cobblestones that are not soaked through, but carry a thin film of moisture where dust and grime combine to create a treacherous skating surface. This is the condition that catches riders out most often — stones that look dry but offer less grip than a fully wet surface. Tyre choices, which teams will finalise on race morning, could prove decisive. Pogacar's commitment to 35mm Continental GP5000 S TR tyres suggests his team is already planning for this possibility, maximising rubber on the road regardless of conditions.
Van der Poel, for his part, is sticking with his proven 32mm setup on the unreleased Canyon Endurace — a choice that trades a fraction of comfort for lower rolling resistance and a faster ride on dry roads. It is a bet on the forecast holding true, and it reveals the Dutchman's confidence in his ability to handle whatever the cobblestones throw at him.
The bottom line is this: dry cobbles at Paris-Roubaix reduce the chaos variable that has historically defined the race. They make the outcome more predictable, more dependent on who has the biggest engine and the best team. And in a race where Pogacar's engine is the most powerful the sport has seen in a generation, that should worry everyone else lining up in Compiègne on Sunday morning.