"Three Days From La Doyenne And The Board Has Never Seen A Market This Tight Behind Pogačar" — Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2026 T-Minus 72 Hours, Seixas 3/1 After Flèche, Evenepoel 4/1 On Amstel Form
Thursday morning in Liège. Seventy-two hours and change from the 11:00 CET flag drop in Place Saint-Lambert, the 112th edition of Liège-Bastogne-Liège has the deepest, tightest favourites market the race has seen since the Alaphilippe era. Thursday morning's locked card reads Pogačar 4/6, Seixas 3/1, Evenepoel 4/1 — the narrowest board behind the Slovenian that any bookmaker has printed since his Monument dominance began.
The 259-kilometre route — seven kilometres longer than last year — stretches from Liège to Bastogne and back over 11 categorised climbs and 4,495 metres of elevation. The Côte de La Redoute, Côte des Forges, Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons and the Côte de La Rue Naniot will, as ever, line up the winning move. Five of the last seven editions have been decided by a solo attack launched between the Redoute and the Roche-aux-Faucons — a window of racing Pogačar has owned since 2021.
Three names frame the Sunday card. Pogačar, winner in 2021, 2024 and 2025, is the overwhelming favourite on any measurable index. Seixas, 19, added the Flèche Wallonne on Wednesday to his Itzulia Basque Country overall and arrives at La Doyenne on a trajectory the sport has genuinely not seen in decades. Evenepoel, twice a Liège winner (2022, 2023) but never with Pogačar in the race, used Amstel Gold as the cornerstone of an Ardennes-only campaign.
The sub-plots are richer than the podium. Mattias Skjelmose, second at Amstel, has the best Ardennes form of any non-Big Three rider on the startlist. Pidcock, who took Stage 3 of the Tour of the Alps on Wednesday, is still battling a knee injury but has the fitness to race. Cosnefroy, Tulett and Schmid are all 20/1 or longer but finished within three seconds of Seixas on the Mur de Huy.
Vingegaard is not here — he is in Trentino at the Tour of the Alps. Jorgenson is not here — he crashed out of Amstel on Sunday and skipped the Ardennes. The Visma-Lease a Bike line-up for Sunday is built around Tulett, Kamp and Van Aert's final Ardennes appearance before a Roubaix-centred pivot he has already confirmed publicly.
Weather from Belgocontrol's 09:00 CET run called for a light northerly breeze, 18°C afternoon high, and a 20 per cent shower risk over the Côte de Stockeu in the first hour. The dry finale that has favoured Pogačar's long-range attacking style in every recent edition looks likely to hold. A dry Liège is, historically, a Pogačar Liège.
UAE Team Emirates-XRG will name their final seven on Friday, with Pogačar supported by Almeida (in the race as a super-domestique before his Giro line-up), Soler, Cosnefroy and either Yates or Ayuso. Decathlon-CMA CGM will build their seven around Seixas with Paret-Peintre as road captain.
A Friday morning press conference is scheduled at Liège's Palais des Congrès at 14:00 CET. Pogačar, Seixas and Evenepoel are all confirmed on the podium. Cycling Lookout will publish the final start list the moment the ASO teams' submission window closes at 18:00 CET on Friday, with an expanded preview and the eve-of-race briefing on Saturday evening.