Itzulia Basque Country Stage 4 Preview: Queen Stage Around Galdakao Could Decide the Race
Thursday's stage 4 of the Itzulia Basque Country is the day the race has been building towards. A brutal 167.2-kilometre circuit around Galdakao featuring seven categorised climbs and over 3,000 metres of elevation gain, this is the queen stage — the one day where Primoz Roglic, Isaac del Toro, and Juan Ayuso must attack with everything they have, or accept that Paul Seixas will ride into Bergara on Saturday wearing the overall leader's jersey.
The numbers tell the story of the challenge facing Seixas's rivals. After two devastating stage victories — the opening time trial in Bilbao and a solo masterclass on stage 2 to Cuevas de Mendukilo — the 20-year-old Decathlon-AG2R sensation holds a lead of almost two minutes over Roglic in the general classification. Florian Lipowitz sits at 2:08 and Mattias Skjelmose at 2:14. Del Toro is 2:44 behind in eighth. Ayuso has shipped 3:55 and sits sixteenth. The gaps are enormous for a six-day race, and two minutes is a vast deficit to overcome in the Basque Country terrain.
The route, however, offers every opportunity for fireworks. The stage begins and ends in Galdakao, looping through the mountains of Bizkaia with relentless climbing from the opening kilometres. The seven categorised ascents include several trademark Basque punches — short, steep walls that shatter rhythm and split the peloton into fragments. But it is the final ascent to Legina that will be the decisive battleground. At 3.2 kilometres long with an average gradient of 7.7 per cent, it is the stage's only second-category climb, and its summit arrives just 8.8 kilometres from the finish line.
For Roglic and his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe squad, the Legina climb presents a clear tactical template: isolate Seixas, attack hard on the steep gradients, and hope to open a gap that can be extended on the descent and run-in to the finish. The Slovenian has built his career on exactly this kind of racing — explosive accelerations on short, punchy climbs that leave opponents gasping. If there is a day in this Itzulia where the gap comes down, it is Thursday.
Del Toro and his Lidl-Trek team face a more complex equation. The Mexican is racing on home roads in Spain and arrived as the pre-race favourite after overall victories at Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya earlier this season. But Seixas has shattered those credentials, and del Toro must now decide whether to ride for stage wins or commit fully to a GC assault that would require reclaiming nearly three minutes. The queen stage is his last realistic chance to close the gap before Saturday's finale.
The descent from Legina to the finish will be critical. The final 8.8 kilometres drop sharply before the road rises to the Galdakao finish line, creating a setup that rewards both descending bravery and finishing power. A rider who crests Legina alone could extend their advantage; a group that comes over together could see the race decided in a brutal uphill sprint to the line. Either scenario plays to the strengths of Roglic, who remains the most dangerous finisher in the field.
For Seixas, the task is deceptively simple: survive. A two-minute buffer gives him enormous room for manoeuvre, and the young Frenchman has shown no weakness on any terrain so far. His time trial was imperious, his mountain attack on stage 2 was devastating, and the sweep of all five classification jerseys speaks to a rider operating at a level that defies his age and experience. If he can limit his losses on the queen stage to under a minute, the race is effectively over.
The weather in the Basque Country on Thursday is expected to be cool and cloudy, with temperatures around 14 degrees and the possibility of light rain on the higher climbs — conditions that add another layer of complexity to the descents and could make the roads treacherous for tired legs in the finale. Whichever way the race unfolds, stage 4 promises to be the most gripping day of the 2026 Itzulia Basque Country.