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Spring Classics

Adrie van der Poel: "Fifty-Fifty" — Father Gives Mathieu Even Chances Against Pogačar at Roubaix

CYCLING LOOKOUT • 7 APRIL 2026

The man who knows Mathieu van der Poel better than anyone in cycling has offered a fascinatingly candid assessment of his son's chances at Paris-Roubaix on Sunday. Adrie van der Poel — himself a former Tour of Flanders winner in 1986, exactly forty years ago — believes the odds of Mathieu beating Tadej Pogačar to the cobblestone trophy in Roubaix are "fifty-fifty," a significant upgrade from the sixty-forty advantage he gave Pogačar at the Ronde.

"In the Tour of Flanders, the odds are 60/40," Adrie told CyclingFlash in an interview published Monday. "Next week it's 50/50." The shift in confidence reflects a simple truth that the cycling world has long understood: the flat, relentless cobbles of northern France suit Van der Poel's specific skillset — his ability to ride standing up, absorbing impacts through raw muscular power rather than technique — more completely than any other race on the calendar. Three consecutive Roubaix victories from 2023 to 2025 are the evidence. A fourth would equal the all-time record held by Roger De Vlaeminck and Tom Boonen.

But it was Adrie's reflections on his son's recovery powers that provided the interview's most memorable moment. "The day after a classic, I was dead," the elder Van der Poel said, casting his mind back to his own racing career in the 1980s. "He's playing golf!" The image is striking: while his father spent post-race days recovering from the physical devastation of 260 kilometres on Belgian cobbles, Mathieu treats the aftermath of a Monument with the nonchalance of a man on holiday. It is a generational leap that speaks to the extraordinary conditioning of the modern professional cyclist — and to Van der Poel's exceptional physiology in particular.

That recovery capacity is directly relevant to the Flanders-to-Roubaix turnaround. With just five days separating the two Monuments, the ability to absorb the damage of one 260-kilometre cobbled race and produce another peak performance is a decisive advantage. Van der Poel finished second at Flanders on Sunday, beaten only by Pogačar's otherworldly Kwaremont attack, but Adrie's assessment suggests his son will arrive in Compiègne on Sunday morning with fresh legs and the confidence of a three-time defending champion.

The "fifty-fifty" assessment also carries an implicit message about Pogačar. Adrie is too experienced and too shrewd to dismiss the Slovenian's chances — Pogačar has, after all, won every race he has entered this spring — but the even-money odds suggest the elder Van der Poel believes the Hell of the North presents specific challenges that Pogačar has not yet proven he can overcome. The pavé of Roubaix is not the Kwaremont or the Paterberg. There are no steep gradients to exploit a climbing advantage. The race is won through attrition, positioning, and the ability to maintain power over 54.8 kilometres of bone-jarring cobblestones — a test that favours experience, and Van der Poel has more of it than anyone.

Alpecin-Deceuninck have structured their entire spring around delivering Van der Poel to Roubaix in peak condition. The Dutchman himself has described his preparation as "copy-paste" from his three previous winning campaigns — the same training blocks, the same recon rides, the same meticulous attention to equipment and tyre pressure. It is the approach of a man who has solved the race and sees no reason to change the formula. Pogačar, by contrast, is entering the unknown: he has never raced Paris-Roubaix, never navigated the Arenberg Forest at race speed, never had to judge tyre pressure decisions in the frantic chaos of the feed zone at Orchies.

Adrie also reflected on the remarkable symmetry of the moment. Forty years ago, he won the Tour of Flanders. Now his son is attempting to win a fourth consecutive Paris-Roubaix. "I have a very good feeling about Mathieu after this Tour of Flanders," he said. The father's instinct, honed by decades in the sport, may prove the most reliable form guide of all. Sunday will tell whether the fifty-fifty call was generous to Pogačar or to his son.

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